In this blog post, we will look at how the concept of paradigm shift in The Structure of Scientific Revolutions can affect the development and future of the semiconductor industry.
The semiconductor industry from the perspective of The Structure of Scientific Revolutions
From the birth of the first human being to the present, humanity has developed at a rapid pace. The driving force behind these developments has been science and technology, which has constantly led to new discoveries and innovations. Primitive humans, who lived by hunting and gathering, changed their way of living by using fire, and the agricultural revolution enabled humans to settle down and promoted the development of civilization. Afterwards, through the industrial revolution, we established a more efficient production system, and in modern times, we have been benefiting from technology in almost all aspects of our daily lives through the transition to an information-based society. In particular, since the mid-20th century, the development of science and technology has accelerated, leading to qualitative and quantitative improvements in our lives.
So, how has the development of science and technology progressed? In his book The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, Thomas Kuhn argued that the history of science is a continuous transformation from one paradigm to another through a revolution. In fact, science and technology have developed through a series of events that can be called a revolution. There was the Copernican and Galilean heliocentric theories, and major theories such as Darwin’s theory of evolution, Einstein’s theory of relativity, and quantum mechanics have led to the development of science and technology today by presenting a new paradigm.
So, can engineering apply the theory that emerged from the structure of the scientific revolution? Of course, it can. Science and engineering are closely related because engineering is a discipline that uses scientific theories to create things that are needed in real life. Since The Structure of Scientific Revolutions was originally written using the natural sciences as an example, it is not without its caveats when applied to engineering. However, I believe that the process of establishing a new normal science theory through a new paradigm can be applied to engineering. So from now on, I would like to apply the theory of the Structure of Scientific Revolutions to my major, electrical engineering, specifically to the field of semiconductors and integrated circuits.
A paradigm shift in the semiconductor industry
I believe that the development of the circuit field in electrical engineering began in earnest with the invention of the transistor. In the words of Thomas Kuhn, the invention of the transistor became a scientific revolution and opened a new paradigm. The invention of the transistor led to the invention of the computer, which in turn had a major impact on the creation of the smartphones we use today. However, after the invention of the transistor, electrical engineering has entered the stage of normal science. In other words, the main research directions have become the development of materials to make transistors operate more efficiently and the miniaturization and integration of circuit elements.
As Moore’s Law explains, the integration density of semiconductor devices is steadily increasing. However, this development falls into the category of normal science, which leads to gradual miniaturization and performance improvement rather than a paradigm shift. The innovations that occur in the process of optimizing performance and miniaturizing based on existing technologies and principles are not a new paradigm, but rather an inevitable result of applying existing theories.
In the semiconductor industry, signs of a crisis have become increasingly apparent in recent years. Growth in the smartphone market reached 74.4% in 2010, but has since slowed down, recording a growth rate of less than 1% in 2023. This is a sign that the market has reached saturation. Most consumers already own a smartphone, and as the technological differentiation between new models has decreased, demand for upgrades has also decreased. In addition, innovative products such as foldable smartphones have not significantly reversed the market’s growth trend, reflecting the limitations of existing technologies and the current lack of new technologies.
In this context, the semiconductor industry is also facing the limits predicted by Moore’s Law. The miniaturization of devices is reaching its limit, and it will require enormous costs to further increase the integration density. Some experts say that miniaturization and integration enhancement in the semiconductor industry are no longer efficient. This suggests the possibility that we may soon face a crisis in normal science. If the crisis in normal science continues, a new paradigm will inevitably emerge. In the semiconductor industry, new technologies are being developed to solve this crisis, and it is highly likely that the future semiconductor paradigm will be formed around 3D semiconductors, quantum computing, and nanotechnology.
Future Outlook of the Semiconductor Industry
If we view the current situation as the beginning of a crisis in the semiconductor and circuit industry, how will the future unfold? According to the structure of the scientific revolution, at the beginning of a crisis, many researchers try to maintain the existing normal science. However, as time goes by, the perception that normal science is no longer sufficient to explain complex natural phenomena spreads, and a revolutionary theory emerges to establish a new paradigm. This process can also be applied to the semiconductor industry.
Of course, the existing research paradigm will be maintained for the time being. The miniaturization of semiconductor devices will continue, and electronic products such as smartphones and computers will evolve to be smaller and faster. However, if the size of the machines used by humans is miniaturized beyond a certain limit, it may become inconvenient, and technological limitations will inevitably arise. When these limits are reached, a new paradigm will emerge to replace the existing normal science.
The reason why we can look positively at the future of the semiconductor industry is that humans have already made many innovations in the process of continuously developing new technologies and solving problems. Considering the radical changes that occurred in the early 20th century from the use of simple machines powered by electricity to the invention of transistors and integrated circuits, there is a good chance that similar levels of innovation will continue to appear in the semiconductor industry.
Conclusion
So far, we have analyzed the past, present, and future of the semiconductor industry based on Thomas Kuhn’s theory of the structure of scientific revolutions. The semiconductor industry is currently reaching the limits of miniaturization and integration, which can be interpreted as the beginning of a crisis for normal science. However, this crisis can be an opportunity to lead to a transition to a new paradigm, and the semiconductor industry will continue to grow through revolutionary changes.
This future is also the responsibility of our students majoring in electrical engineering. The greatest responsibility that students in our major have is to discover new paradigms and develop the ability to implement them into reality. We must continue to research and innovate so that the electrical engineering and semiconductor industries can continue to develop.
