In this blog post, we will examine why rapidly advancing technology is replacing jobs and causing social polarization.
The coexistence of humans and machines has begun. Machines, which were once merely passive tools that helped us with our work, have undergone repeated developments and now form networks among themselves, identifying users’ needs and responding to them directly. Ubiquitous refrigerators identify the ingredients inside and suggest meals for the day based on the user’s preferences and health status. Driverless cars for the visually impaired not only monitor real-time traffic conditions but also identify the physical environment and weather conditions, and calculate the shortest route through systematic analysis. When viewed in terms of the 24-hour cycle of human history, these changes have all taken place in just 20 seconds.
Technology has improved the quality of life by doing things that people do not want to do or should not do, and the increase in leisure time and the widespread use of robots have created new industries and jobs. Before cars existed, there were no gas stations or mechanics, but the advent of cars created a vast number of jobs and economic value.
However, will technological advancement continue to improve the lives of individuals in the future? The author’s answer is “no.” He puts the brakes on public expectations for modern technology, saying that the three pillars of modern technology—exponential growth, digitalization, and combinatorial development—will ultimately lead to social inequality and a decline in both the relative and absolute value of life.
This is also what I want to say. Future technological advances will have a scale and power incomparable to those of the past, and that power will shake not only individual lives but also our society. The use of tools in the Neolithic Age increased agricultural productivity, leading to population growth, while the steam engine in the Middle Ages enabled mass production and mass transportation, giving rise to economies of scale. Technological innovation has always led to social transformation, and the magnitude of that change has been amplified. So what will amplify the technological revolution of the future in a way that distinguishes it from past revolutions?
It is the development of IT technology and the emergence of big data. Not only is a single machine more productive than an individual, but it now holds vast amounts of data and can process it at an ever-faster rate. Therefore, it is only natural for capitalists to introduce robots to increase productivity. In fact, in 2011, Terry Gou, chairman of Foxconn, the world’s largest computer parts manufacturer, announced that he would replace employees responsible for painting, welding, and assembling products with 1 million robots within three years. Although this goal was not fully achieved, thousands of robots were introduced to the workplace over the course of three years to replace human labor, and this trend is not limited to Foxconn, but is also evident in various industries around the world, including Google. As a result, 47% of jobs in the United States are at risk of being replaced by robots, and the list includes not only assembly line workers but also pharmacists, lawyers, journalists, and other jobs that were once considered to be exclusively human domains of thought and logic. The phenomenon of automation robots replacing human labor because they are more “efficient” than humans is known as technological unemployment.
Technological unemployment reduces consumer purchasing power along with the collapse of social classes. This is expected to hinder the flow of money and cause economic collapse. The impact of technological unemployment does not stop there. It leads to further social turmoil, namely polarization. How does technological unemployment lead to polarization?
First, unlike technology, which dramatically increases the productivity of our society, employment and income decrease, causing a phenomenon known as the Great Decoupling. Most of the jobs being replaced are skilled workers who make up the middle class. With the disappearance of the middle class, the productivity gains achieved through the use of machines will accrue to the owners of physical capital (machines) rather than to labor as a whole, widening the gap between workers and capitalists. In fact, in the United States, the share of capital in GDP has increased over the past 50 years, while the share of labor has declined.
Second, technological changes in production and distribution lead to relative advantages becoming absolute advantages, resulting in a winner-takes-all phenomenon. In an era where valuable creative products can be reproduced at low prices and without limitation, the breakdown of spatial and temporal barriers in the market means that the second-place player, who was able to compete with the leader by exploiting the ignorance of consumers or geographical barriers, loses its competitive edge. This leads to the elimination of the second player and the monopoly of the first player.
The coexistence of humans and machines has begun. No, now they are becoming the main actors, “taking away” the role of humans and “alienating” humans. There are movements to correct this through economic and educational systems, but in order to keep up with the changes brought about by technology, efforts beyond technological development will be necessary. This is because, compared to the emergence and influence of revolutionary technology, it is difficult to bring about social change with only the power of a small number of people, and it is believed that there will be a lot of confusion to endure and values to give up. This is why I cannot be optimistic about technological development.
