In this blog post, we will look at the scientific basis for global warming and the arguments against it, exploring different perspectives on climate change and the issues involved.
On June 23, 1988, James Hansen of NASA made a shocking announcement at the US Congress. First, carbon dioxide emissions from humans are increasing in the atmosphere and warming the Earth. Second, if global warming continues, it will cause abnormal weather patterns and sea level rise, which will have a devastating impact on the entire planet. Although research on global warming had been conducted prior to his announcement, his comments on carbon dioxide became a major issue. Since then, the world has been in a state of carbon dioxide emergency, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a global research organization, was launched in November of that year and has taken various measures, including the publication of three reports. In 1997, the Kyoto Protocol was adopted at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Tokyo, and many countries signed an agreement to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Now, in the 21st century, we are constantly exposed to information about carbon dioxide and global warming. When we turn on the TV, we see commercials showing bears floating on melting icebergs, and the labels of the products we frequently consume and use display marks indicating that they were manufactured with low CO2 emissions in order to mitigate global warming. Campaigns to prevent global warming can also be seen in everyday life, such as campaigns to not press the close button on elevators and to wear underwear indoors. Let’s take a look at what environmental pollution and global warming, which are so closely related to our lives, are, what solutions there are to deal with them, and what problems are associated with the concerns about global warming that are prevalent in all aspects of our lives.
Global warming is causing a variety of abnormal weather patterns around the world. The 1980s and 1990s were abnormally warm periods, and were the warmest decades since global weather measurements began. In fact, the nine warmest years on record have all occurred since 1990. This period also saw many extreme weather and climate events. Abnormal strong winds hit western Europe, causing severe storms in many parts of Europe, while other regions experienced the worst climate events in history, with 80 tropical cyclones, including hurricanes and typhoons, occurring every year. Floods and droughts were also severe. The 1988 floods in Bangladesh submerged 80% of the country, and the droughts in Africa in the 1980s caused more deaths than all other disasters combined. In addition, abnormal weather phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña were frequently observed. As global warming continues, weather patterns are changing rapidly.
Now let’s look at the greenhouse effect, which is the basic principle behind global warming. The Earth’s temperature is regulated by the balance between the solar radiation energy coming from the sun and the Earth’s radiation energy leaving the Earth. These two energies are usually in equilibrium, but if the equilibrium is disrupted, the Earth’s temperature changes accordingly to restore the equilibrium. For example, when the sun’s activity changes and the amount of radiant energy increases, the amount of heat entering the Earth increases, causing the temperature to rise. Similarly, when the amount of radiant energy leaving the Earth decreases, the amount of heat leaving the Earth also decreases, causing the temperature to rise. We will not discuss solar radiation energy here, but let’s learn about Earth’s radiant energy. Earth’s radiant energy is absorbed by greenhouse gases such as water vapor and carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Therefore, as the amount of greenhouse gases increases, the amount of Earth’s radiant energy leaving the Earth decreases, causing the temperature to rise. Among these greenhouse gases, those that can be influenced by human activities include carbon dioxide, methane, nitrogen oxides, chlorofluorocarbons, and ozone. Of these, the most important greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide, whose concentration continues to increase due to human activities and is said to contribute about 70% to the greenhouse effect.
With carbon dioxide, considered to be the main cause of global warming, continuing to increase, what actions are people taking? First, there is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, signed in June 1992. In this agreement, the signatory countries agreed on short-term and long-term goals to prevent global warming. The short-term goal was to reduce carbon dioxide emissions to 1990 levels by 2000, and the long-term goal was to stabilize the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a level that would not affect the climate. Subsequently, at a conference held in Berlin in 1995, the parties to the convention agreed to reduce emissions to the average levels for the period 2008-2012, rather than the figures proposed in the convention itself, and to reach a more appropriate agreement among themselves. To implement these agreements, a conference of the parties was held in Kyoto in November 1997, and the Kyoto Protocol was adopted. The protocol includes the scope of gases to be reduced for global warming, comparisons between them, and principles for monitoring gases. The specific details of the protocol were finalized at a meeting of the parties in Marrakesh in 2001.
Separate from global agreements, there are also movements to protect the world’s forests. Deforestation is also a factor in increasing carbon dioxide emissions, and it is said that tropical forests, which account for 47% of the world’s forests, are being destroyed at a rate of about 1% per year. To prevent this, there are movements to plant trees and ban logging. In addition, various activities are being carried out to prevent the increase of greenhouse gases, such as reducing the sources of methane gas.
While some people insist that we must protect the Earth from global warming, others argue the opposite. In the 21st century, some scientists have raised objections to the claim of global warming, arguing that the conventional claim that carbon dioxide is the main cause of global warming is completely unfounded, and that the carbon dioxide reduction campaigns being carried out around the world are nothing more than a business ploy by governments.
First, let’s look at the real background of global warming as they claim. Around the 1970s, as environmental pollution became severe, many countries enacted laws and established government agencies for the purpose of monitoring and preventing pollution. As a result of their efforts, the air and water quality improved significantly in 1985. However, as a result of the improved environment, government agencies in charge of the environment were in danger of losing their national projects. They were caught in a dilemma: they needed to pollute the environment, but they couldn’t deliberately pollute it. If this situation continued, not only would the people working in government agencies in charge of the environment go out of business, but so would the companies related to them. At this point, James Hansen’s remarks at the US Federal Assembly became a lifeline. Global warming was taken very seriously, so efforts to mitigate it were considered entirely justified, and a good goal was set in the form of carbon dioxide reduction. Environmental agencies were once again able to carry out national projects under the banner of global warming. As a result, in Japan, 1 trillion yen of taxpayer money is spent annually on measures to combat global warming, and money that should be spent elsewhere cannot be diverted, and it is said that other areas of research are not receiving funding due to the cost of research and development related to global warming. In addition to government agencies such as environmental agencies, companies also jumped on the bandwagon. Taking advantage of the desire of people who want to love the earth even a little, they have become enthusiastic about the environmental business and have flooded the market with eco-friendly products.
In response to the global warming argument, they ask, “Is the climate really warming?” First, if we look at the graph used by James Hansen, who first warned of the dangers of carbon dioxide, in his testimony before the US Congress, we can see that the temperature dropped sharply around 1970. If the Earth had continued to warm, this drop in temperature would not have occurred. In response to this, the following opinion was presented in 1980: Earth’s temperature is mainly determined by solar activity, and human activity has a negligible effect on temperature. The rapid cooling of the Earth between 1940 and 1970 can also be explained by changes in solar activity. Solar activity changes in regular cycles, and global temperatures have risen and fallen gradually in line with these cycles. Furthermore, according to NASA’s weather satellite NOAA, observations around 2008 show that global temperatures have risen only slightly over the past 30 years. Although some parts of the northern hemisphere are showing a warming trend, the southern hemisphere as a whole and the Antarctic region have shown no change in temperature or even a downward trend. If carbon dioxide is the main cause of global warming, then carbon dioxide emitted by human activities should immediately spread into the Earth’s atmosphere, causing temperatures to rise everywhere. Therefore, the phenomenon of different trends in the southern and northern hemispheres cannot be called global warming. They also question whether global warming is really caused by carbon dioxide emitted by humans. Among greenhouse gases, water vapor has not received much attention until now. Water vapor has the strongest greenhouse effect of all greenhouse gases, and it is said that more than 90% of global warming is caused by water vapor. This water vapor circulates around the Earth through convection, and its movement can cause sudden changes in temperature.
They also refute claims of sudden climate change and extreme weather events. First, according to data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the number of hurricanes making landfall in the United States did not increase between 1860 and 2000. In addition, a research team led by Johan Naeberg in Sweden concluded in Nature that claims that global warming causes an increase in hurricanes are based on an underestimation of the number of hurricanes in the past. Currently, the number of hurricanes is counted using satellite images, which is highly accurate, but it is possible that many hurricanes in the past were not counted. Therefore, they estimated the number of hurricanes in the past using traces of storms left on coral reefs on the seabed, and based on this, they found that there has been little change in the number of hurricanes to date.
The climate is clearly closely related to our lives and nature. Right now, weather forecasters on TV are emphasizing every day that this year is colder or hotter than usual, and the news is reporting that seasonal changes in the weather are causing changes in the types of fish caught at sea. So, if the climate is changing, we experience it directly with our bodies, and the nature in which we live is also directly affected by it. And with decades of experience, we are beginning to sense that the Earth’s environment is changing. If the initial claim about global warming is correct, then we must take responsibility for the changes we have caused to the Earth. Even if the opposing argument is correct, it only means that the Earth may not be warming, not that the Earth’s environment is not being polluted. Therefore, we must not stop caring for the Earth while remaining vigilant against businesses that use global warming as a marketing ploy.
