This blog post examines the specific mechanisms by which weather alters various voter burdens—such as travel inconvenience, information costs, and leisure activity choices—ultimately increasing or decreasing voting participation.
Explanations of voting participation focus on the costs voters incur to participate. For instance, the closer a polling station is to a voter’s residence or the easier it is to reach, the more readily voters can cast their ballots. Furthermore, a significant portion of the cost of voting participation involves acquiring and processing information about the election and candidates. Generally, voters with higher socioeconomic status participate more actively than those with lower status because the former perceive these costs as lower.
Election day weather can also be a cost factor influencing voting decisions. Rainy days make traveling to the polling station or waiting in line inconvenient. Consequently, existing studies generally agree that inclement weather discourages voter participation. However, academic focus has primarily centered on whether the increased costs from bad weather are substantial enough to actually lower turnout. Some scholars view the cost increase caused by weather as negligible, while others argue that even minor inconveniences can significantly sway a large number of voters’ decisions to vote or abstain.
A recent study examining U.S. presidential elections found that, when comparing precipitation and voter turnout at the state level, a one-inch increase in precipitation above the seasonal average resulted in a roughly 2.4 percentage point decrease in turnout. However, this study faced criticism for using “precipitation in the state’s largest city on election day” as a proxy for state-level precipitation measurements. Nevertheless, other studies that corrected for this issue also presented evidence that increased precipitation leads to lower voter turnout.
Moreover, the costs associated with voting include not only the direct costs required to participate but also the opportunity costs incurred by forgoing other choices to vote. For example, for a salaried worker, the loss incurred while leaving their workplace to vote represents an opportunity cost. Considering this, compared to South Korea, where election day is designated a public holiday, American voters effectively pay a higher opportunity cost to participate. Designating election day as a public holiday or implementing early voting systems are representative measures aimed at reducing these costs to increase voter turnout.
Considering opportunity costs, the impact of weather on voter turnout may also differ between Korea and the United States. In countries like the U.S., where election day is not a public holiday, the opportunity cost borne by working voters who must vote during work hours remains largely unchanged regardless of whether it rains or not. If rain increases the time required to vote, the opportunity cost also rises, making the distinction between direct costs and opportunity costs less meaningful.
However, in Korea, where election day is a public holiday, the available alternatives may change depending on the weather. For example, for voters who planned outdoor leisure activities on a sunny day, the opportunity cost of voting increases as their leisure time is constrained by participating in the election. Conversely, if it rains on election day and they stay home instead of going outdoors, the opportunity cost of voting actually decreases. Consequently, such voters are more likely to participate in the election when it’s cloudy than when it’s sunny.
The reason we focus on voter turnout is that election outcomes change depending on who votes. In the United States, where elections are often contested between Republicans and Democrats, the saying “Republicans pray for rain on election day” is frequently cited. This is because rain lowers overall turnout, and this decrease in participation primarily stems from abstention among peripheral voters—such as young people, people of color, and low-income individuals. In other words, inclement weather tends to raise the barrier to voting even higher for peripheral voters, who already have a lower willingness to pay the cost of voting.
In recent Korean elections, where political support varies by generation, different age groups may react differently to weather. The increased direct cost of voting due to inclement weather could be a heavier burden for the elderly, who face greater mobility constraints. Conversely, for younger voters, who tend to prioritize leisure activities, the opportunity cost of voting on a rainy day may decrease, potentially leading to higher turnout.
